overconfidence
oh-ver-KON-fuh-duhnss
/ˌəʊ.vəˈkɒn.fɪ.dəns/
Excessive belief in one's own capabilities, knowledge, or the accuracy of one's predictions.
Specifically denotes a systematic miscalibration between objective accuracy and subjective subjective certainty.
The story behind the word. Combines the Germanic prefix 'over-' with the Latin 'confidere' (to trust completely—from 'com-' with 'fides' meaning faith). Cognitive psychologists in the 1970s formalized the 'overconfidence effect' after finding people consistently rate their knowledge accuracy at 90% when it is objectively around 60%.
Word relationships
- hubris: Hubris is arrogant pride inviting tragedy, while overconfidence is a broader cognitive miscalibration of skill or accuracy.
- presumption: Presumption involves overstepping boundaries, whereas overconfidence focuses on overestimating capabilities.
- humility: Humility is modest estimation of one's own abilities.
- underconfidence: Underconfidence is underestimating one's true knowledge or performance capacity.
Commonly confused with
- optimism: Optimism is a general positive expectation about future events; overconfidence is overestimating one's personal knowledge or control.
Word family
- overconfident (adjective): Excessively sure of one's abilities or knowledge.
- overconfidently (adverb): In a manner exhibiting miscalibrated certainty.
Collocations
- overconfidence bias
- overconfidence effect
- extreme overconfidence
- hubristic overconfidence
Idioms & expressions
- biting off more than one can chew
- riding for a fall
Example sentences
- "Overconfidence among executive leaders frequently results in disastrous corporate acquisitions." Corporate finance research
- "The overconfidence effect is one of the most consistent patterns found in experimental cognitive psychology." Classic psychology quotation
Memory hook
OVER-confidence is placing your trust way OVER where the facts warrant. Overconfidence = Thinking you know more than you do.
When not to use
Do not confuse healthy self-esteem or earned confidence with toxic, miscalibrated overconfidence.
Fun facts
- In surveys, over 90% of drivers rate their driving skills as 'above average', a statistical impossibility.
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